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(AWP) - Head of the Arab Water Council, Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Zeid, said that the Arab countries are among the world’s poorest in terms of water, pointing out that the per capita share in 18 Arab countries has reached less than 1000 cubic metres per year, which is the water poverty line set by the United Nations.

In an interview with AWP, Abu-Zeid added that Egypt is among the countries suffering from water poverty, as the annual per capita share is 650 cubic metres, and is expected to reach less than 350 cubic metres by 2050.

The President of the Arab Water Council, an independent regional organisation comprising many Arab countries, warned of dangers threatening Egypt’s future water security, most notably the large increase in population amid a fixed share of Nile water.

"The most important factor affecting the severity of water poverty in Egypt is the population increase in light of the fixed of the water share of the Nile River according to the 1959 agreement. This share has been fixed since the signing of this agreement, while the population of Egypt at that time was about 20 million compared to 105 million at the moment," he said.

Egypt and Sudan have signed an agreement to share the Nile water in November, 1959, which set Egypt’s share at 48 billion cubic metres per annum.

In response to a question regarding the possibility of Egypt facing a drought crisis, Abu-Zeid, a former irrigation minister in Egypt, said that a crisis could occur if no measures to confront the lack of Egyptian water resources are taken.

However, he added that "the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation has two strategies to deal with the water deficit. The first strategy for the year 2037 includes ways to address the water deficit, which currently amounts to about 21 billion cubic meters, through several programmes that it implements".

"[The second] is the 2050 strategy, which generally discusses how to confront water poverty. The state does not stand idly by in front of this deficit," he continued.

"It cannot be said that we will face greater difficulties, unless we do nothing. But it is clear from the activities carried out by the Ministry of Irrigation and other ministries in the country that there are very important measures to confront this water poverty," he added.

According to Abu-Zeid, listing the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue and its effects on Egypt’s water security within the agenda of the Arab summit that was held in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia last May, in addition to placing it on the upcoming summits’ agendas, is "a massive gain".

He pointed out that the idea of building dams along the Nile River is not a new one, explaining, that "there were objections on the part of some Nile Basin countries to dividing Nile water shares between Egypt and Sudan in 1959, and Ethiopia turned to the United States and requested a full study to build dams on the Nile River, and back then, they proposed the construction of 16 dams in Ethiopia, including the Renaissance Dam".

Nonetheless, he said that it "was not like what is currently happening. In the beginning, the proposal was [a dam] with a storage capacity of 14 billion cubic metres. Ethiopia does not need to store 74 billion cubic metres, which is the current storage capacity of the [Renaissance] dam, but they say that [they are] storing this amount to generate energy".

He said that if the Renaissance Dam was built with a storage capacity of 14 billion cubic metres, it would have generated 60% of the current energy it is generating at 74 billion cubic metres.

Regarding the existence of international agreements governing the division of water between countries, Abu-Zeid referred to the Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourse, which was approved in 1997, saying that "there are two basic provisions in this agreement that we hope will be implemented. The first is prior notification, which means the consent of the participating [Nile] countries to any project that is being built on this river".

"As for the second clause, it is that the project should not lead to negative effects, and this clause is found in the agreement of principles that was signed between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in 2015," he added.

Egyptian President Abdelfattah El-Sisi, former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, and former Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir signed a Declaration on Principles agreement in 2015 to resolve the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project.

The agreement secures a framework of commitments to ensure a full consensus between the three countries on the method and rules for filling the dam's reservoir and its annual operation after the completion of joint studies under preparation.

Despite these challenges, Abu-Zeid sees a trend towards optimal utilisation of the Nile water among basin countries, such as the navigational project linking the Upper Nile and the southern and Mediterranean countries, which is currently under study.

He said that there are efforts to make optimal use of about 1660 billion cubic metres of rain that fall on Nile Basin countries, only 84 billion cubic meters of which is currently used, which amounts to the share of Egypt and Sudan.

He pointed out that more than 65% of the Arab countries’ water resources, including Egypt’s, come from outside its borders, and this poses a major challenge.

Regarding the extent to which agricultural projects undertaken by the Egyptian government are affected by water scarcity, he said: "without a doubt, any new project that is implemented will have a water policy. All of them are projects that have their own water needs calculated".

On Tuesday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi met with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Mr. Mohamed Marzouq El-Quseir, to review the state's plan to radically change Egypt's agricultural map.

A statement issued later said that the plan aims at "reclaiming millions of acres across Egypt within a short period of time, with more than three million new acres that will soon be added to the agricultural area".

According to Spokesman for the Egyptian Presidency, Counsellor Ahmed Fahmy, the targeted area exceeds a third of Egypt’s entire agricultural lands.

Abu-Zeid said that Egypt does not solely depend on the Nile water for its new projects. While the Toshka Project in the south of the country depends on the river water, the West Delta and Sinai projects depend on groundwater. As for the new Delta projects and the 2.5 million feddan project, they depend on sewage, agricultural and industrial wastewater treatment projects.

He added that Egypt has three of the world’s largest water treatment projects, which are the al-Mahsama project in Ismailia Governorate, the Bahr al-Baqar project in al-Sharqiya Governorate, and the al-Hammam Canal project in el-Dabaa region, "all of which are projects that provide water for new projects".

As for the possibility of selling water between countries and considering it a commodity in the future, Abu Zaid said, "In the general sense, in areas that have groundwater and wells are being built, this water can be sold to neighbouring countries at a certain value equal to the cost of the energy used".

"This is a trend that exists globally... [the United States of] America buys water from Canada," he added.

Alas, he ruled out the possibility of Arab countries buying water river to fulfil its water needs, adding that there have been no suggestions regarding this issue.

Abu-Zeid said that countries like Jordan, Iraq, and Syria face great challengers due to the impact of the water they receive through dams in Israel and Turkey.

He continued, "There are about seven to nine countries in which the per capita share is less than 500 cubic meters annually, including Jordan, which has a per capita share of less than 120 cubic meters."

"Some Arab countries are in danger of entering conflicts due to water crises, such as Syria, Iraq and Jordan, due to the presence of shared rivers," he said.

Regarding water security in Iraq, he said that "Turkey has built several dams over shared rivers and that has greatly affected the quantity of water that reaches Iraq. When Turkey built the Ataturk Dam, the agreement was to provide Iraq with a certain amount of water, but unfortunately Turkey did not honour this agreement".

He pointed out that there are negotiations between Baghdad and Ankara to reach a comprehensive agreement that guarantees compensation for part of the water that Turkey withheld from Iraq's share of water.

Many Arab countries have resorted to groundwater or desalination to meet their needs due to the lack of sufficient water resources.

"The United Arab Emirates depends on 90% of its water needs on desalinated water, and Saudi Arabia owns 30% of the world’s desalination projects and also relies on groundwater," Abu-Zeid said.

He said that climate changes and their impact on water resources pose the most important challenges that Arab countries face in the field of water security, especially with the dry and hot climate in most Arab countries, in addition to the rise in sea levels and the submersion of some lands caused by these changes.

He also cited the increase in population and the increase in water consumption, even to wasteful levels.